Friday, July 22, 2011

All About Doing Deals

The Blessed

And all about Europe.

That's what the upcoming conference for European hotel investors says about itself.

Everyone will be focused on the great deals out there (see Ireland) and the opportunities left in the wake of Europe's economic crisis.

Ought to make for some interesting discussions, especially by the time September rolls around.

What do I think? I think for investors with cash, there's no doubt that there are great deals out there.

I also think that Europe is in no way actually headed towards a viable way out of its economic crisis. The worst is still ahead. The Greek austerity bandaid won't stick. Greece will default, it's really just a question of how much pain they inflict upon themselves before coming to that painful conclusion.

And once they do, the question will be who is next. Sadly there will be a number of possibilities at that point. One by one, the dominos will fall.

And whatever the fat cats might want to say about that now, it won't end well. For anyone still believing the euro will hold up well once the dominos start to fall, I think we could find a tranch of AAA-rated subprime mortgages on the Brooklyn Bridge that are currently available for your investment portfolio.

What makes me so sure? The same thing that made me so sure back in 2004 that the real estate market in America was starting to bubble out of control and would eventually burst. There was simply no other possible outcome to be expected by any rational person actually looking at the facts on the ground.

All that said, put all the real facts facing Europe right now in one basket and this ought to make for one very interesting conference indeed.

What's a European to do? Well, I have personally found a few Hail Marys have been particularly beneficial at times like this. Beyond that, well, I think I'll take a pass.