Start a Trend

Regular readers will know that my number one solution to surviving the economic downturn is sharing. This is a crisis after all. And the same thing holds true for all crises. The survival skill most needed is not hoarding, but sharing.

For innkeepers, sharing ideas. Sending referrals. Sharing as much of yourselves as you can with guests. And remembering that your competition keep you on your toes; they're to be cherished for the gently ambitious impact they can have on us. Never has there been a better time for understanding what it really means to be a good neighbor.

I'm also a longtime supporter of Buying Local initiatives. From the Slow Food Movement to organizations like BALLE who help local communities build their own Buy Local coalitions, there's some good work going on out there in helping us all keep our dollars in our local communities, where they'll do the most good.

One relatively new organization, the 3/50 Project, is already having a big impact and asks the simple question:

What three independently owned businesses would you miss if they disappeared?

An interesting thought.

But even better, they've come up with a simple plan for helping to make sure those 3 favorite businesses don't fold.

Pick 3. Spend 50.

$50 per month on your 3 favorite local businesses.

Not necessarily all 3 each month. But $50 each month on those 3 local shops you really really want to see stay with us.

I can do that. Surely you can, too.

Check them out. And sign up. I did.

Maryland Office of Tourism Promotes B&Bs

Some regular readers know that, once upon a time, I lived in Maryland, both on the Eastern Shore and in Annapolis. Lived in Kensington, too, for a short while.

All fabulous, by the way. Among the loveliest of American locales. If you ever have the opportunity to visit, don't let it go by. And in my humble opinion, there is no bad time to visit Maryland's Eastern Shore. Truly one of America's greatest treasures. Yes, I'm talking blue crabs. But also just pure unadulterated beauty.

So how nice to see that the Office of Tourism there was actually going out and doing some real promotions on behalf of the many wonderful B&Bs in Maryland.

What do I mean by actually going out and promoting them? Going on the local teevee station and showing some clips of actual places.

Can't get better promotion than that.

Tourism Boards everywhere: are you listening? Small inns need you. Get out there. We would really like to see more of this everywhere.

Revised 2010 Forecast Released

That didn't take long.

Regular readers will remember my frustration when the good folks at Smith Travel predicted a more rosy 2010 than I think is realistic.

That was way back in December. You remember. When we had supposedly turned a corner.

And now? Well here's my favorite quote:

“We have believed for quite some time that it will take the better part of 2010 for the hotel industry to regain its footing,” said Mark Lomanno, president of STR. “Our latest forecast reflects what we believe will be a somewhat challenging first half of the year. Momentum will build in the second half of 2010, which will lead to the beginning of a turnaround in 2011."

Yes, long believed.

Wonder why they didn't say that last month?

More From the Blue Skies Sunshine Dept

I just love optimists. So fun to be around folks who see sunshine everywhere they go.

Of course, you don't really want those folks forecasting for you. But still.

So here's a little bit of blue-skies-sunshine reporting. The good folks at Lodging Econometrics have a new report out about the number of new hotels being opened worldwide, for 2010.

The good news? Only 717 new hotels will open in 2010 Way down from last year. 56% drop.

Why? Well, that's the bad news that we already know. There is no financing at all anywhere for lodging property. None. Zip. Nada.

Slowing down the growth is, in my book, a good thing. There are too many rooms out there now. We don't need more.

For the B&B industry, in particular, though the lack of financing represents a catastrophic future for aging owners who need to sell. Or any owners who need to sell. Folks want to buy them but can't. Owners really want to sell to the eager buyers but can't.

For B&B owners, this isn't just an investment. It's their home, their life, their future retirement. It's everything they have.

It's something that really needs to be addressed through Small Business Administration loans or some other government backed program to get funding for those businesses. In many cases, these are B&Bs that are well-priced, profitable, and providing much needed jobs to their rural communities. Someone should be looking at this. Please.

Other good news in the report? Sorry, none. That's it. The good news is there is no money for new buildings so fewer rooms will be added.

Just gotta love those optimists.

Things Can Only Get Better

That seems to be the basic premise among the we've-rounded-a-corner crowd. 2009 was so bad that 2010 can only be better.

And here's why they think 2009 was bad. Because it was.

RevPAR down a whopping 16.7% to 53.71
Occupancy down 8.7% to 55.1
ADR down 8.8% to 97.51

Or as the same folks who told us this fall that we've rounded a bend put it,

“Good riddance to 2009, a year which we believe will go down as the worst in the modern hotel industry,” said Mark Lomanno, president at STR. “The combination of a distressed economy in conjunction with panic pricing drove RevPARs down to levels that were virtually incomprehensible just a year and a half ago. I look for a significant improvement in the key hotel performance indicators in 2010.”

Well yeah, if it's the worst ever, it's not unlikely that the next year could be better.

Except for one little problem. It's the economy stupid.

Unemployment still crazy high. Check. Credit card rates at 30% all over the place. Check. Folks being told in commercials on the teevee that they should bargain down the hotel by 50%. Check. Foreclosures all over the place. Check. B&Bs on the market unlikely to sell at all. Check.

Which city suffered biggest drop? New York. How many NEW hotels opening there this year, adding rooms to an industry already struggling to fill the ones they have? 50
How about Houston? Bad. And lots of new hotels opening there in 2010, too.

And how is this year going so far?

What's that?

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week virtually flat with an 0.8-percent decrease to 47.8 percent. Average daily rate dropped 7.4 percent to finish the week at US$94.78. RevPAR for the week fell 8.2 percent to finish at US$45.33.

Hmmmm. Looks like things are still not all that rosy, if you ask me.

So where do you get out of the reality of our situation that things will get better?

Well, you start with the premise that we've gone so far down that we can't go further. And then you start saying, well, not much further.

And then you finish with saying good riddance last year, hello blue skies.

Here's my prediction. Many many hotels will not make it through this year. Many many B&B owners will face tragedy as they age and simply cannot sell their inns. All the new rooms on the market from new hotels opening in major cities will force ADR down further, causing panic in both those cities and outlying areas, pushing ADR down further.

When ADR goes, RevPAR can't be far behind.

What about the inns that buck the trend? Oh they're out there. They're smart. They're savvy marketers. They're working their butts off on packages and incentives and new marketing programs. They'll make it. They are good values already and will work to make sure prospective guests know that.

But it's not going to be an easy year. And it's not going to be pretty to watch.

The only good news? PAII finally took that silly study off it's front page claiming just the opposite of reality was true, that occupancy had gone up. You remember, the study that looked at 2006 results but posted on their website all of 2009. Jeeeeez.

Yes, rainbows are lovely. But I still don't go running out looking for a pot of gold at the end of each one. I've got real work to do. We all do.

Don't Try This at Home

Every culture and every country has something wonderful to offer. I learn as much from traveling and living abroad as I ever did in school.

The Irish taught me to use hot water bottles in my bed on cold nights. A trick I have never forgotten and have been grateful for knowing at times.

So when I read about hotels over in the UK offering Human Bed Warmers, of course I was intrigued.

Not so much that I'd recommend it in the States. Or for the bed I'm going to sleep in thank you very much. I have my own human bed warmer. No stand-ins please.

And yes, I'm pretty sure that they are serious about this.

Sun Ovens for Haiti

I've long been a fan of Sun Ovens. Their products work well, are simple to use, and as green as it gets.



So when I heard they were partnering with Friends of Haiti to get more Sun Ovens to Haiti, well, you can imagine how happy I was. What a great idea.

Sun Ovens have been working in Haiti for years now where serious deforestation created a need for alternative energy even before the quake. If you're looking for a way to help, this is one I wholeheartedly endorse.

For more ideas, check out my earlier posts here and here.

H/T WorldChanging

RIP Beckham

Condolences to TBogg, Mrs TBogg, the L&TC, and Beckham's many fans everywhere.

Here in Northern Cal, we're having a moment of silence for the short-legged dynamo from the sunny South.

Thursdays will never be the same.

Soles4Souls

I don't know about you, but my closet is a veritable storage chest of shoes I don't wear anymore. Lots of old sneakers, hiking shoes, and otherwise comfy shoes that I just don't wear.

Who needs them now more than Haiti?

And the fabulous folks at Soles4Souls will help get them there.

That's right, just drop those stinky old shoes off at their nearest dropoff location and they'll ship them to Haiti.

I've already started to put a bag together to drop off this evening. Surely you can, too.

H/T Ecouterre

UPDATE: The fabulous Frenchie says my little shoes don't stink. I'm not asking him how he knows about the smell of my shoes. But I just love that man!

Some Dude's Mom

will reknit your sweater into a scarf.

Totally cool.

And just how well thought-out is the dude's clever marketing plan? If you don't have an old sweater to reuse, there's a link to find the closest Goodwill.

Clever, clever, clever, this dude.

But if you want a scarf, you'd better get moving. She's only doing scarves for the month of January.

And yes, I voted Beanie for next month's reknit.

How about you?

How to help Haiti

When disaster strikes, we Americans tend to rally to the rescue. Even in difficult times at home, we are usually quite generous in times of need.

Now all eyes are on Haiti. The level of suffering is truly unimaginable.

How to help?

Paul Farmer and Partners in Health have been working there for years. They're on the ground and every dime that goes to them will be put to work right away.

In my book, that's about as good as it gets in disaster dollars. So they get my vote for donations.

How can inns help? Link to Partners in Health on your website. Incorporate a donation to Partners in Health to bookings on your site. Or just mention it on your blog. Right after, of course, you've clicked through yourself and made that donation.

The price of lunch can make a huge difference if we all do it. Just do it now.

UPDATE: The best feed I've found for following what's going on is this one from the good folks at the UN.

UPDATE 2: Some innkeepers have asked about donations of shelter itself, since that's what we do ourselves: provide shelter. The folks at ShelterBox do just that. They prepare a box complete with tent and supplies. You can donate to them or sponsor a whole Shelter Box here.

And one more great organization that already exists in Haiti: Wyclef Jean's Yele. Money donated there will go where it's needed right away.

However you give, give something, somehow. The need is extraordinary.

Warm Wishes from the Central Coast

Yes, it's as tropical as it looks in this lovely sunset.

Unseasonably warm here on California's Central Coast.

And yes, I do feel guilty thinking of folks buried in snow.

But not much. It's just too splendid out for guilt of any sort.

Have been innsitting here since just before Christmas and the warm weather has brought oodles of guests. A great surprise for the owners who expected it to be slow these 2 weeks. Instead, we're full every night.

We'll be celebrating our own Christmas starting tomorrow. Tomorrow? Why yes, Orthodox Christmas is tomorrow. Am I orthodox? Well, no.

But any excuse to celebrate a holiday is a good excuse to me. Especially since I worked through the last two!

So happy holidays all over again. And my wishes for you in the new year are every bit as warm and sunny as this perfect weather.